Policy and commerce specialists had a panel and debated the prospective of a China-US decoupling in Guangzhou, China. At Fortune’s Global Technology Forum on Thursday, the experts discussed the position of tech firms in the tech and trade wars between Beijing and Washington. None of the speakers was positive about the short-term implications of the disagreements between the US and China. However, they came to an agreement that a complete decoupling of the two superpowers could not be allowed to happen. Cheung Kong graduate school professor of finance, Gan Jie, said that both states need one another in the long-term. Gan Jie is the co-founder of Songshan Lake Robotics Park in Guangdong area.
Gan expressed that the existing trade conflict is real and it is based on each other’s misunderstandings about the basics of commerce in the 21st century. He says that in the absence of the mix-ups, the war could be inexistent. Eurasia Group’s practical head of Geotech, Paul Triolo, said that Washington has a perception that the two are in a long-term tech rivalry. Triolo mentioned areas of evolving competition as quantum computing, 5G, and AI. Thus, China’s advantage in a multifaceted zone like AI is viewed as a loss to Silicon Valley.
In reality, Triolo says that AI is a minor field where academics can cooperate across borders and co-author documents. MSA managing associate Ben Harburg appears to be slightly less optimistic. Seeing ten years into the future, he foresees a balkanized, diverged globe where American firms still stand out and interoperability still in existence. Yet, there will be a significant rebalancing of where the tech supremacy and giants sit, which is nearer to China. Harburg says that Washington’s decoupling is quite untimely. He forecasts that whereas Washington’s export panels and venture limitations may injure China, that will be expected to be short-term. However, America is the loser in the long-term since China will be forced to be economically and technically self-sufficient.
Also, Harburg states that shared supply chains, talent, and capital markets concentration will be in China. Then, it will erect innate industries and leading overall tech players, hence appeal embryonic tech markets. He also worries that Washington’s decoupling will affect its tech giants like Google and Facebook. Google may lose the ability to govern the internet. Paulson Institute’s Vice-Chair and Exec Director, Deborah Lehr, offers a logical interpretation of the status quo. Lehr said that America has a credit that decoupling is not likely to occur among the trade community. Measures have to be taken on working together.
Dil Bole Oberoi
