The Arizona GOP establishment is in full panic mode after it was revealed that Trump may endorse a challenger to incumbent Governor Doug Ducey, who has been less than supportive of the president. The challenger, former State Senator Kelli Ward, has the support of Steve Bannon and many grassroots conservatives. If Ducey loses the primary, it will be a huge embarrassment for him and could portend trouble for the Republicans in the general election.
The establishment’s fear of a Ward victory is palpable. The Arizona Republic, the state’s largest newspaper, has already endorsed Ducey for reelection and is now running negative stories about Ward on a daily basis. Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin, who is advising Ducey’s campaign, said that a Ward win would be “a disaster” for the GOP.
Coughlin is probably right. A Ward victory would embolden the Trump wing of the Republican Party and further marginalize the establishment. It would also send a clear message to other Republicans who are thinking about crossing the president: you do so at your own peril.
The good news for Ducey is that he has the support of Vice President Mike Pence, who will be campaigning for him later this week. The bad news is that Pence is one of the most unpopular politicians in Arizona and his appearance on behalf of Ducey is likely to do more harm than good.
The bottom line is that the Arizona governor’s race is a microcosm of the battle for the soul of the Republican Party. If Ward wins, it will be a major victory for Trump and his populist-nationalist agenda. If Ducey hangs on, it will be a setback for Trump but not a fatal one. Either way, this is just the beginning of what promises to be a very long and brutal fight for control of the Republican Party.
The next few weeks will be critical in determining the outcome of the Arizona governor’s race. If Ward can maintain her momentum and keep Trump on her side, she has a very real chance of winning. But if Ducey can hold on and rally the establishment behind him, he should be able to eke out a victory. Either way, this is going to be a race to watch.
Dil Bole Oberoi
